What will be the outcome of the war in Ukraine by Russia?
Hard to say at the moment, the fog of war envelops the two countries. And each camp throws its propaganda. But there are indisputable facts is that the war was won by Russia in a few days. Its military superiority is overwhelming and in fact even the Russians were surprised how they swept into Ukraine like butter. Obviously, Ukraine is divided into two parts, East and West. The East looks to the Russian side while the West looks to the West.
Let’s keep in mind that Ukraine is the aggressor in this story. There have been nearly 15,000 dead over the past 8 years in the Donbass under fire from Kiev. Moreover, the encirclement of Russia by NATO must have pushed the Russians to their last entrenchments. If I’m in my house and every time I go out there are dozens of thugs pointing at me with shotguns, it wouldn’t be surprising if one day I pulled my old Kalash out of the closet to shot everything that moves.
Russia still has to win the political war and it will be difficult. Because the Kievans do not like Russia because of the Holodomor which is this famine which struck Russia and the Ukraine causing 2.6 to 5 million deaths. For the Kievans, the Holodomor was knowingly organized by Stalin in order to exterminate the Ukrainian people. The veracity of this version is highly disputed today, as it is believed to have been the unintended consequences of the disastrous management of the Soviet empire. The fact that the Holodomor remains a very marked trauma in Ukraine.
Russia’s objective for Ukraine is to switch over to the Russian side with pro-Russian leaders at its head and remake a Constitution in which the country cannot join any foreign military alliance. It would be the holy grail for Russia with a total victory. However, it will be difficult, but even if Russia gets stuck in a quagmire in this war, it will have recovered more territories than before the offensive and this is the main thing to keep in mind in military strategy. What did we have before and after?
Russia has every interest in making this war as quick as possible. Let’s not forget that a large part of the Kievan elite is of neo-Nazi and mafia tendencies. Armed groups are more like gangs than “defense forces”. NATO and the West found themselves completely upside down in the face of the Russian Blitzkrieg. They anticipated a war, but not that Russia was going to mobilize all its forces attacking on several fronts.
As they lost the military war, then the West will turn Ukraine into a new Syria. The distribution of thousands of weapons has not encouraged the Kievans to defend themselves, but it has enriched the Ukrainian gangs who will be able to resell them to European mafias or jihadist groups. One of the worst and stupid decisions was that of Germany to give more than 500 Stingers to Kyiv. They are missile launchers, capable of hitting fighter planes. The problem is that the Ukraine already had Stingers and it did absolutely nothing against the Russian fighters.
On the other hand, the Stingers will find themselves in the hands of armed groups and the Kievan elites, who will launch the big sell-off in the country and therefore, the risks are high that these missile launchers will find themselves in the hands of jihadists in Europe to shoot down airliners for example. This larval war is wanted by the West in the mode: “If we can’t have Ukraine, then we will destroy it from within”. Typical of the putrefied elites that make up Westerners.
In these last years of power, Putin wants to reform the great Russian federation and if he has to pay the political price, then he is ready to do so. It’s a big risk he took and let’s hope he succeeds. Sanctions against Russia will not help. In fact, the disconnection of SWIFT risks turning against Westerners. Because this will encourage the Russians to favor the SPFS which is their alternative to SWIFT as well as the CPIS which is the Chinese alternative. Moreover, the disconnection of SWIFT is considered the financial nuclear weapon in essence and even that, the westerners did not have the balls to do it a full power, because the banks which manage the payments of Russian gas will not be not affected.
This will accelerate the de-dollarization of the world in the long term, which will leave the United States increasingly vulnerable, as its current power is based on the dollar as a world currency. China has taken a clearly pro-Russian stance, and recent meetings in Putin and Xi Jinping have prompted the two countries to draw closer. The Master of the Kremlin had to say: “You don’t say anything if I go for a walk in Kiev” and the other had to answer him: “Ok bro, but you don’t say anything either if I take a selfie in Taipei“.
The reunification of Taiwan is not negotiable for China and it had to obtain guarantees from Russia not to intervene. Even if in the war against Taiwan, the United States will intervene for sure. They will not lower their pants on two fronts and this is even one of the reasons why they do not intervene in Ukraine, because all their attention is turned towards the Forbidden City.
Regardless of the outcome of this war, the world shift has begun and if Russia doesn’t get its all-in in its gamble, then there’s the slant-eyed player who can still sit at the table. For the moment, the West emerges very weakened from this story and the union it screams at the top of its voice is only artificial.